The knee jerk reaction in the Western press to the Hamas victory in the January 2006 Palestinian elections was one of shock, disappointment, and fear for the future in that region. On first blush, one could easily say that President Bush’s strategy of depending on Democratic elections to pacify the Middle East has backfired and allowed Islamists a way to “take control”. Suddenly, the discussion has turned to whether the USA and Israel should “recognize” a Palestinian government that is controlled by a terrorist organization whose first official statement was that “negotiating with Israel and recognition are not on our agenda. The armed struggle will continue”. Hamas’s political platform was based on their manifesto, which calls for armed struggle and the eventual destruction of Israel, so their first statement came as no surprise.
What was a surprise is that now with Hamas in charge, they have to improve the lot of the Palestinians while trying to maintain the appearance of an armed struggle against Israel. That is going to be a difficult task, given the fact that the Israelis virtually control the electricity, gas and water in the Gaza and West Bank AND have a demonstrated military superiority that they will use if needed.
Another surprise delivered to the desk of the new Hamas Palestinian President is the fact that the “pretense” that a roadmap peace process was still alive is DOHA – dead on Hamas’s arrival. The diplomatic duplicity that was the hallmark of the old guard Palestinian regime of both Arafat and Abbas has, thankfully, come to an end. The days of the Palestinian politicians saying that they want peace, while allowing supposedly “renegade freedom fighters” to terrorize Israelis - is over. The world was well aware that this “good cop/bad cop” ploy existed, but as long as there was a feeble attempt to portray it otherwise, they were willing to play along. With Hamas at the helm, that game is over.
The EU and US have indicated that they will not financially support a Hamas led Palestinian government. That will have no affect with oil at $67 a barrel, and Iranian and Saudi financial support - and so be it. This is a period on consolidation within the Palestinian sphere, and Hamas’s success or failure will depend on their ability to create order out of the chaos and inaction that has existed for too long.
From an Israeli perspective, they are now “enabled” to act against any act of violence originating from the Palestinian sphere without the burden of playing the game of diplomatic duplicity. If a missile is fired at Israel, they now have a convienent address to deliver a pinpoint response. If Hamas stops the violence against Israelis - while still beating their chest and spewing inciteful rhetoric, then I am sure that Israel can live with a bad neighbor - after all that is why they built the security fence.
Democracy is a work in progress, not a single act. If Hamas doesn’t deliver the goods - whatever that is in the minds of the Palestinians people, then they will end up on the losing side of a future election and maybe then a peaceful Palestinian government will emerge, if not – then so be it.
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