Friday, July 14, 2006

58 years of lessons learned in the Mideast

They say that hindsight is 20/20. If that is the case, then the apparent re-writing of the rules of engagement by the Israeli military vis-à-vis their Arab/Muslim enemies - whether they are in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria or Iran is clearly a lesson learned the hard way.

Lesson #1: Land for peace is a dead issue going forward.

The Israeli pullout from Gaza - and the Israeli pullout from Lebanon years ago, only served to demonstrate that the Israeli efforts to give up "land" in exchange for "peace" has produced just the opposite – an Arab/Muslim perception of Israeli weakness. If terrorism produces Israeli concessions, isn't it logical that more terrorism would produce more Israeli concessions? If anything, Israel may have to takeover a large swath of land in both Lebanon and Gaza in order to put Arab missiles out of range.

Lesson #2: Don't trust the UN.

The Israeli pullout from Lebanon was brokered by the UN with the understanding that the Lebanese border would become de-militarized, and that the Lebanese government would re-establish control over its southern border. In addition, the UN stationed UN troops on the Israeli/Lebanese border in order to verify compliance with the peace agreement. A decade later, Hezbollah has established a significant up-graded military capability on the border, right under the noses of the UN "peacekeepers". In the most recent border incident, the UN troops were nowhere to be found (The same weak kneed UN troops did the same on the Egyptian border right before the 1973 war).

Lesson #3: Peace agreements are worthless if the facts on the ground don't back up the rhetoric.

Signing peace agreements (Oslo, Taba, and Roadmap, just to name a few) before the two parties are really ready for peace is a recipe for failure and disappointment. As long as the incitement against Israel in the Arab world continues, there can be no real peace. Given the systemic anti-Israel incitement that Palestinian society has been exposed to for the past 60 years, it will be another 25 years before they are ready for peace, presuming they were to reverse course tomorrow.

Lesson #4: The Palestinian argument against Israel – and for a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West bank must no longer be accepted as a fiat accompli.

As part of re-writing the rules, popular Palestinian catch phases like "occupation, collective punishment, etc" are mythical mantras that have no roots in reality, now that Israel has vacated Gaza and the Palestinians have endorsed a terrorist entity to govern them. The concept of a Palestinian state in Gaza and the West Bank connected by a road or train that bisects Israel, is an unworkable, unacceptable solution to the conflict. The Israeli withdrawal from Gaza was the supreme litmus test for the Palestinians to demonstrate their willingness to govern themselves peacefully – a test which they failed miserably. It must also be acknowledged that a bi-national state is also an unworkable solution, given the long-term animosity between the 2 parties. Therefore, alternative solutions to the conflict - until now considered "off the table", must be put on the table for consideration, i.e.; the West Bank and Gaza reverting back to Jordanian and Egyptian control, or moving the entire Palestinian population to Jordan (and renaming it Palestine).

Lesson #5: The next peace plan, many years from now, is going to require the Palestinians to take a leap of faith, not the Israelis.

A few lessons that are yet to be learned:

Lesson #6: Iran and Syria are the real culprits (and Lebanon their victim), and they shouldn't expect their strategy of plausible deniability to make them exempt from retaliation.

The Hezbollah and Hamas terrorist groups could not function at such a high threat level if it wasn't for certain state sponsors - primarily Iran and Syria, who provide financial, logistical, and military support. Punishing only their surrogates – Hamas and Hezbollah, is like blaming the tail of the dog for sitting on the living room sofa.

Lesson #7: The arrogance of moral superiority that handcuff both the US and Israeli military from accomplishing their task is the secret arrow in the quiver of Islamic extremists.

While the US and Israeli military are correct in trying to minimize civilian casualties, it must be remembered that WW2 would not have come to a successful conclusion had we not blanket bombed Dresden and Berlin. The Palestinian people elected a terrorist government, and the Lebanese people have allowed Hezbollah to use their soil. Both are complicate in allowing aggression to emanate from their territory, and if they suffer collateral damage, it is a result of their own inaction. International pressure for Israel to use measured responses for the past 6 years has only enabled and encouraged more violence from their Arab neighbors.

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