Monday, June 25, 2007

The Fastest Way to Stop a War is to Lose it

Opponents of the Iraq war are either predicting we will lose, or are advocating that we depart prematurely - which will make defeat a fact. Many of them use the analogy of the US withdrawal from Viet Nam or Reagan's withdrawal from Beirut as the basis for their argument.

But there is an equal argument that the US pullout from Beirut was the first of many strategic military mistakes made by the US that has contributed to the horrible situation in the Mideast today. The US pullout from Lebanon emboldened Iran and their Lebanese surrogate, Hezbollah. Since then, Iran has become the epicenter of state sponsored Islamic extremism in the Middle East, and Hezbollah has transformed from a minor terrorist group into a large scale army whose existence is devoted to provoking instability in Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Israel, Gaza, as well as in Iraq.

The critics of the Iraq war cry "pull out", as if there are zero consequences. When we pulled out of Viet Nam in 1975, it led to horrors that engulfed the region. The Khmer Rouge killed 1-2 million fellow Cambodians in a genocidal rampage. In Viet Nam, up to a million died in re-education camps and millions fled, mostly by boat. The defeat of the US in Viet Nam emboldened Brezhnev and the Soviets went on a geo-political offensive in the third world for over 10 years. While I am glad we left Viet Nam, there were consequences that we didn't anticipate. I say this as a former anti-Viet Nam war activist.

The pretenses that led the US war in Iraq, whether you think they were morally right or wrong - are totally irrelevant to the discussion of "what do we do now". There is no doubt that Iraq is a mess, but the reality is that the coalition forces are making slow progress that, even today, far exceeds the doomsday pre-war predictions. Do we want our troops out of harms way in Iraq? Of course. Do we want to leave open the possibility that millions could die as a result of a premature withdrawal? No. Do we want to see the US further vilified in the global community for letting Iraq and her neighbors convulse in a spasm of violence that may last decades? No. Do we want to embolden the global jihadist Muslim extremists? No. Do we want to send the wrong signal to our allies that we aren't to be trusted? No.

Rather than opposition to the war in Iraq based on partisan opportunism, maybe the discussion of ending the war in Iraq should center on pressing our military leaders to develop more potent techniques and strategies in order to win the war. Winning a war has always taken longer than losing.

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