The Obama administration’s next
major test in the Mideast comes from an Iranian cargo vessel heading,
accompanied by two warships, for the Yemeni Red Sea port of Hodeida and
scheduled to dock Thursday, May 21. According to Tehran, the ship will unload
2,500 tons of humanitarian aid for Yemen, and the hundreds of passengers who
disembark are Red Crescent medical relief workers.
The Saudi, U.S. and Egyptian Navys
have imposed a sea and air blockade on Yemen to prevent Iran providing the
Yemeni Houthi rebels with fresh arms. Saudi and other regional intelligence
agencies are convinced that the “paramedics” are in fact Revolutionary Guards
officers and instructors in disguise, sent to strengthen the Houthi revolt.
Washington, Riyadh and Cairo have all vowed to stop the Iranian flotilla from putting into port in Yemen and said that its vessels will be forced to submit to inspections in a Yemeni government port to make sure no illicit weapons are aboard and to confirm the passengers’ identities. Tehran, for its part has threatened to treat any such inspections as an act of war.
There is little doubt that the USS
Theodore Roosevelt carrier and strike force, which have been monitoring the
Iranian flotilla’s movements, will NOT be ordered to intervene against the
Iranian ships reaching the Yemeni port. The last thing President Obama wants is
to upset Tehran when he is in dire need of the Iraqi Shiite militias controlled
by Iran to stand up to ISIS before its columns reach Baghdad - AND - his need
to seal the nuclear deal with Iran (no matter what Iran does or says).
Without the US, it is unlikely –
but possible, that Saudi and Egyptian warships could directly engage an Iranian
naval force and risk a major military conflagration. With that
said, Obama just gave his word to the Saudis at Camp David that he would “have
their backs” in the instance of Iranian militant belligerency against them. If
I were the Saudis, I would be suspicious that Obama might have a “knife against
their backs”.
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